Jack Ma, the Chinese e-commerce tycoon, has predicted that almost a third of China’s retail will be online in five years, suggesting an unprecedented transformation of consumption in the world’s most populous country.
中国电商大亨马云预计，未来5年中国近三分之一的零售业务将在网上完成，暗示世界人口最多的国家将实现史无前例的消费转型。
“People always ask me what is the difference between ecommerce in the US and ecommerce in China,” Mr Ma said at an investor conference held by Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.
在瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)在香港举办的一个投资者会议上，马云说：“人们始终在问我，美国电商和中国电商的区别在哪里。”
“In the US, ecommerce is just a dessert – it is supplementary. The infrastructure of commerce is already so good. In China, ecommerce is the main course. We are building China’s infrastructure,” said Mr Ma, who will step down as chief executive of Alibaba Group in May but will stay on as its executive chairman.
“在美国，电商只是一个饭后甜点，是补充。美国的商业基础设施已经非常完善。而在中国，电商则是主菜。我们正在建造中国的基础设施。”马云将于5月份卸任阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group)CEO职位，但仍将担任董事局执行主席。
Online retail sales now account for slightly less than 6 per cent of China’s total retail sales, according to McKinsey, the consultants. In the US, ecommerce sales accounted for 5.2 per cent of total retail sales last year, according to the US department of commerce.
咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)表示，目前在中国整个零售业务中，网络销售不到6%。美国商务部(department of commerce)数据显示，去年美国电商销售占整个零售业务的5.2%。
A much larger role for online commerce could help raise the role of private consumption in the Chinese economy but force foreign companies to adapt their strategies for penetrating this market.
网络销售扮演更大角色，可以促进中国经济中私人消费的作用，但也会迫使外国公司调整战略，以渗透这个市场。
“Today, Alibaba is 5 per cent of the whole retail market in China . . . I think 30 per cent of all retail in China will be online in five years,” said Mr Ma.
马云说：“目前，阿里巴巴占整个中国零售市场的5%。我认为，未来5年中国30%的零售业务将在网上完成。”
But the industry has been growing at an average 120 per cent a year for the past decade and there are indications that online retail websites have triggered new consumption, giving Mr Ma’s prediction credibility.
但在过去10年里，这个领域平均每年以120%的速度在增长。有迹象显示，网络零售网站引导了新的消费，这使得马云的预期具有可信度。
Online retail in China “is not just a replacement channel for purchases that would otherwise have taken place offline – it actually spurs incremental consumption”, McKinsey says in a new report to be published on Thursday.
麦肯锡在今天将发布的一份新报告中指出，中国网络零售“不仅是商店购物的一个替代渠道，实际上它还刺激了增量消费。”
Richard Dobbs, a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, the consultancy’s research arm, said data from 266 Chinese cities suggest that only about 60 per cent of online consumption is replacing sales in brick-and-mortar stores.
麦肯锡调研机构——麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)主管理查德•多布斯(Richard Dobbs)表示，来自中国266个城市的数据显示，网络消费中大约只有60%是实体店消费的替代。
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